Romania’s Electoral Landscape, More Uncertain Than Ever: Rising Indecision and Absenteeism Ahead of the Elections
The 2025 presidential elections are entering the final stretch under the shadow of uncertainty and fragmentation.
Compared with MKOR’s research conducted at the end of March, the updated data reveal a worrying increase in voter indecision, a decline in declared voting intention, and greater volatility in second-round voting options.
Just days before the elections, 1 in 5 Romanians states they do not know who they will vote for in the first round, while in simulated second-round scenarios, between 41% and 55% of respondents do not express a clear choice.
At the same time, firm voting intention has visibly decreased since March, especially among the supporters of George Simion and Crin Antonescu.
In a climate marked by tension, uncertainty, and a lack of convincing electoral alternatives, MKOR carried out the independent study “Consumer Sentiment 2025” to provide a reliable, independent, and up-to-date picture of Romania’s electoral reality.
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Why We Repeated the Study
At MKOR, we believe that research should not stop when the context changes—on the contrary, it must accelerate.
In such a volatile electoral moment, we decided to repeat the “Consumer Sentiment 2025” study to better understand how voting intentions, mobilization levels, and the risks of absenteeism and indecision have evolved.
Our goal was to provide an updated, independent, and comparative view of the electoral reality—even before the presidential elections of May 2025.
This research was carried out 100% independently, exclusively at the initiative of MKOR, without funding or influence from any political or institutional actor.
“Real data must serve as the compass for decision-making in a time of collective uncertainty.
Faced with an increasingly undecided and polarized electorate, we felt the need to return with an updated snapshot of Romania’s electoral landscape.
For MKOR, independence and methodological rigor in all our studies are the standard.”
Cori Cimpoca – MKOR Founder
George Simion Remains the Leader, but Uncertainty Grows
The “top of mind” vote — the spontaneous answer to the question “Who would you vote for?” without offering a list of options — highlights a worrying dynamic for all main candidates: a sharp increase in indecision and the absence of firm choices.
Compared with the study conducted in March:
- In March, 45.3% of respondents did not indicate any candidate or refused to answer.
- In April, the share of those without an answer rose to 50.9%, signaling a decline in electoral mobilization and growing confusion among voters.
| Candidate | 26-28 March 2025 | 24–27 April 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| George Simion | 9,8% | 10,6% |
| Nicușor Dan | 11,9% | 9,7% |
| Crin Antonescu | 8,4% | 8,6% |
| Victor Ponta | 8,3% | 5,2% |
| Călin Georgescu | 7,6% | 5,1% |
| Elena Lasconi | 2,3% | 2,4% |
This trend suggests that although the leading candidates remain relatively stable in the preferences of active voters, the broader electorate is more uncertain than it was in March — and could make its final decision at the last minute, influenced by campaign dynamics or the overall political context.
Round 1: Marginal Gains and High Volatility
In voting intentions for the first round, data collected at the end of April show several important shifts compared with the measurement conducted at the end of March.
| Candidate | 26-28 March 2025 (redistribuit) | 24-27 April 2025 (redistributed) |
|---|---|---|
| George Simion | 31,2% | 33,1% |
| Crin Antonescu | 18,8% | 21,0% |
| Nicușor Dan | 22,7% | 19,4% |
| Victor Ponta | 17,1% | 14,8% |
| Elena Lasconi | 5,3% | 7,3% |
Key trends:
- George Simion slightly consolidates his lead, gaining +1.9 percentage points compared with March, reaching 33.1% of valid votes.
- Crin Antonescu rises from 18.8% to 21%, overtaking Nicușor Dan, who drops by nearly 3.3 percentage points, down to 19.4%.
- Victor Ponta continues his downward trend, losing 2.3 percentage points compared with March, while Elena Lasconi records a modest gain of +2 percentage points.
Although George Simion maintains a numerical advantage in the first round, the growing share of undecided voters and the decline in declared participation temper the significance of these scores.
The outcome of the first round will largely depend on voter mobilization in the final days and on the candidates’ ability to reduce the rate of electoral disengagement.
Massive Indecision in the Second Round: Over 50% Have No Clear Option
The latest data confirm what was already anticipated at the end of March: the 2025 presidential elections will be marked by enormous volatility and a record level of electoral uncertainty.
Compared with the previous survey, the April study introduced an explicit new response option: “Don’t know / Undecided”, which allowed respondents to more clearly express their lack of a firm choice.
The immediate impact of this option was significant: vote fragmentation intensified, highlighting growing concerns about the state of the Romanian electorate.
| Scenario (Round 2) | 26–28 March 2025 – Non-expressed votes (blank/no vote/undecided) | 24–27 April 2025 – Non-expressed votes (blank/no vote/undecided) |
|---|---|---|
| Simion vs. Nicușor Dan | 34% | 43% |
| Simion vs. Crin Antonescu | 36% | 41% |
| Simion vs. Victor Ponta | 40% | 47% |
| Dan vs. Crin Antonescu | 48% | 55% |
| Dan vs. Victor Ponta | 42% | 50% |
What has changed since March:
- In all tested second-round scenarios, the share of voters without a clear option increased by 7–10 percentage points.
- No candidate exceeds the 35% threshold of firm voting intentions, which means that victory in the second round will depend more than ever on last-minute mobilization.
- Indecision exploded in scenarios without George Simion (Dan vs. Antonescu or Dan vs. Ponta), where over half of voters refuse to commit to either candidate.
Key takeaway: Introducing the “Don’t know / Undecided” option revealed that a significant portion of the electorate has not only failed to choose a candidate but also feels unrepresented by the current options.
This critical mass of undecided and demobilized voters may ultimately determine the election outcome, while also amplifying doubts about the legitimacy of the results.
Voter Turnout: Declining Enthusiasm, Rising Risks
While in March it appeared that voter mobilization would be a stabilizing factor in the 2025 presidential elections, the April data significantly alter this perspective.
Declared intention to vote is falling across all main candidates, raising the risk that the final outcome will be heavily distorted by absenteeism or by protest votes expressed through blank or null ballots.
| Candidate | 26-28 martie 2025 – Certain to vote (8–10) | 24-27 aprilie 2025 – Certain to vote (8–10) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Simion | 87% | 76% | -11pp |
| Nicușor Dan | 94% | 92% | -2pp |
| Crin Antonescu | 86% | 82% | -4pp |
| Victor Ponta | 85% | 88% | +3pp |
| Elena Lasconi | 88% | 83% | -5pp |
Evolution of voting intention:
- George Simion records the steepest decline in determination to vote (–11 percentage points).
- Nicușor Dan remains the most stable candidate (minor drop of –2pp).
- Crin Antonescu and Elena Lasconi both lose voter enthusiasm (–4pp and –5pp).
- Victor Ponta is the only candidate who increases mobilization (+3pp), possibly as the result of a late recovery campaign.
The decrease in declared participation, combined with growing indecision and blank/null voting intentions, suggests a major risk that the elections will be decided by a reduced and highly mobilized electorate.
In such a context, even small differences between candidates could prove decisive, amplifying the polarization of the final result in the second round.
Electoral Romania in 2025: Two Worlds Growing Further Apart
The MKOR study confirms a deepening socio-demographic divide between the supporters of the main candidates, compared with the previous survey. Electoral Romania is more polarized than a month ago, across all key dimensions: income, education, urban–rural residence, and professional status.
George Simion: Consolidated Support in Rural, Economically Vulnerable Romania
- 63% of his voters come from rural areas (up from 58% in March).
- 51% have low income (a slight increase from 50%).
- 59% have general education.
- 44% are professionally inactive.
His dominant motivation remains the desire for change and anti-system sentiment (33%), showing that Simion continues to capitalize on socio-economic dissatisfaction.
Nicușor Dan: Stable Among the Urban and Educated Electorate
- 72% of his supporters live in urban areas (unchanged since March).
- 46% have medium income and 35% high income (a slight increase in higher-income voters).
- 43% hold higher education degrees.
- He is preferred especially by employees (43%) and managers (13%).
Main motivations are personality and integrity (49%)—a slight increase since March—showing that his message still resonates strongly with the urban, educated segment.
Crin Antonescu: Socio-Demographic Balance, but Lacking Strong Enthusiasm
- Urban support decreased slightly, from 61% to 59%.
- Predominantly middle-income voters, but a decline among higher-educated voters.
- Growing share of supporters cite “political inertia” or lack of alternatives as their main reason, reflected also in the rise of the Undecided/Don’t know category.
Victor Ponta: Traditional Base, but Losing Momentum
- Still predominantly urban (67%), though with a slight decrease among higher-income voters.
- His main strength remains political experience (45%), which has increased since March.
Two Electoral Romanias, Increasingly Divided:
- Urban vs. Rural: candidate supporters are clearly split by residence.
- Education: higher education defines much of Nicușor Dan’s electorate, while lower education dominates Simion’s base.
- Income: lower incomes favor anti-system candidates, while medium and higher incomes lean toward traditional or reformist independents.
This polarization is likely to influence not only the first round, but also turnout in the second round, where divergent socio-demographic profiles will play a crucial role in the final outcome.
Key Conclusions and Insights
Just days before the first round of the 2025 presidential elections, Romania is facing an increasingly tense and fragmented electoral landscape compared with the end of March. While the previous MKOR study already pointed to clear polarization, the April data confirm that the social divide and electoral uncertainty have deepened.
George Simion maintains his lead in first-round voting intentions and is likely to score highest, yet he has not succeeded in reducing the massive indecision among the electorate. Meanwhile, Crin Antonescu and Nicușor Dan remain his main rivals, in an extremely volatile competition where even a small gain or loss can reshape the final standings.
The most significant change since March is the explosion of indecision. The introduction of the explicit “Don’t know / Undecided” option in second-round simulations has revealed an alarming reality:
- Nearly half of voters hesitate, refuse to choose, or plan to cast a null ballot.
Declared turnout is declining, while absenteeism and blank votes are becoming decisive factors in the final outcome.
Moreover, the socio-demographic profiles of supporters are becoming more clearly defined. Electoral Romania is divided not only politically, but also socially: rural versus urban, low income versus medium and high income, general education versus higher education. The elections will not only reflect political preferences, but also the deepening of these socio-economic fractures.
In this context, the result of the 2025 elections will depend less on campaign rhetoric and more on each candidate’s ability to mobilize a hesitant, fragmented electorate that is difficult to persuade. The second round promises to be extremely tight, where every vote gained or lost could tip the balance decisively.
Regardless of Sunday’s outcome, one thing is clear: Romania is entering a new electoral stage, where social fragmentation, value polarization, and the erosion of trust in the system will continue to shape the public agenda long after the elections are over.
How We Conducted the Research
For this study, we ensured that the collected data reflected as accurately as possible the social and electoral reality in Romania. The data were weighted to approximate the characteristics of voters and the results of the first round of the 2024 presidential elections.
We benefited from the expertise of Professor Mircea Comșa, to whom we are grateful for his support in the process of weighting and validating the data.
With over 25 years of experience in social and electoral research, his involvement was essential to ensuring that the study results were solid from both a methodological and statistical perspective.
- Sample size: 1750
- Sample characteristics: nationally representative by residence, gender, age, education, and electoral behavior in the first round of the 2024 presidential elections
- Target group: the general population of Romania, aged between 18 and 65
- Research method: online survey (CAWI)
- Instrument: questionnaire
- Approach: online, via the MKOR Panel
- Period: 24–27 April 2025
Who We Are
At MKOR, we believe democracy must be grounded in clear and transparent data. We are guided by the power of objective data and statistically validated insights, especially when it comes to social behavior and electoral decisions. Our mission is to provide a clear and objective understanding of social and economic phenomena, so you can make well-informed decisions.
This study on voting intentions in the 2025 presidential elections is part of our independent research initiative, carried out without any political funding or influence. Our goal is to contribute to a deeper understanding of Romania’s socio-political reality, without filtering information through media or electoral lenses.
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